If Google fails to win Linux developers over to the Android platform by mid-2008, Android will never achieve the critical mass necessary to compete with Windows Mobile or Symbian.
As per the latest 'Insight Report' released by the Mobile Consumer Lab and Mind Commerce, Google's Android is the first legitimate attempt to re-create the success of Japan's 'Wireless Ecosystem' model within the context and realities of international mobile markets. If successful, Google could spark unprecedented innovations within mobile content, service and application development, yet a number of critical factors stand in the way of such success.
The Insight Report, entitled 'Google Android and the Wireless Ecosystem' looks through the hype and cynicism that has surrounded Google's official unveiling of Android and analyses the significance of Android versus competitive platforms such as Symbian, Windows Mobile and MontaVista, as well as competing devices such as Apple's iPhone and RIM's Blackberry.
"Although Symbian and Microsoft have offered the most stinging criticisms of Google's Android, Google's next (and most) critical challenge at this early stage of development actually lies in how it will address MontaVista and galvanise the mobile Linux development movement," states Dr Philip Sugai, director, Mobile Consumer Lab, International University of Japan and lead author of this report. "Without successfully accomplishing this goal, Android will become obsolete within 2008, never ever levelling a substantial competitive threat against either Symbian or Microsoft."
Key findings of the report include: Linux developers are critical -- winning developers over to the Android platform will be a critical first step upon which Google must focus. If Google fails to accomplish this by mid-2008, Android will never achieve the critical mass necessary to compete with Windows Mobile or Symbian; innovation is fundamental -- while the $10 million developers challenge is nice, a long-term vision for how content developers will be compensated and rewarded for their efforts is a critical success factor.
The report also points out operators hold the most critical role -- without network operators loosening their revenue-sharing strangle-hold on content developers, these companies hold the greatest power to thwart Google’s ambitions. The report predicts that Google will succeed in acquiring a spectrum licence and to use this to 'convince' operators of the value of mobile innovation, either through partnerships or direct competition.
For mobile innovation to truly succeed, Google and its Android developers must get consumers out of the habit of thinking of the mobile Internet as a 'smaller' and 'less robust' PC Internet. Google must develop compelling incentives to convince the larger handset manufacturers to focus upon and innovate using Android. Without a broad range of handsets available and optimised for Android content/services, Google’s mobile ad-revenue dreams will remain dreams.
For the Open Handset Alliance to convince operators to loosen their grip on content and service revenues, alternative (and more profitable) revenue sources must be identified. While Government regulations will impede operator’s efforts to become banks, without a 'carrot' to compliment the 'stick' of Google’s plans to become a network operator, Google’s efforts to convince the world’s largest operators to adopt Android will be limited. Off-network revenues will be the key ingredient for these discussions.
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As per the latest 'Insight Report' released by the Mobile Consumer Lab and Mind Commerce, Google's Android is the first legitimate attempt to re-create the success of Japan's 'Wireless Ecosystem' model within the context and realities of international mobile markets. If successful, Google could spark unprecedented innovations within mobile content, service and application development, yet a number of critical factors stand in the way of such success.
The Insight Report, entitled 'Google Android and the Wireless Ecosystem' looks through the hype and cynicism that has surrounded Google's official unveiling of Android and analyses the significance of Android versus competitive platforms such as Symbian, Windows Mobile and MontaVista, as well as competing devices such as Apple's iPhone and RIM's Blackberry.
"Although Symbian and Microsoft have offered the most stinging criticisms of Google's Android, Google's next (and most) critical challenge at this early stage of development actually lies in how it will address MontaVista and galvanise the mobile Linux development movement," states Dr Philip Sugai, director, Mobile Consumer Lab, International University of Japan and lead author of this report. "Without successfully accomplishing this goal, Android will become obsolete within 2008, never ever levelling a substantial competitive threat against either Symbian or Microsoft."
Key findings of the report include: Linux developers are critical -- winning developers over to the Android platform will be a critical first step upon which Google must focus. If Google fails to accomplish this by mid-2008, Android will never achieve the critical mass necessary to compete with Windows Mobile or Symbian; innovation is fundamental -- while the $10 million developers challenge is nice, a long-term vision for how content developers will be compensated and rewarded for their efforts is a critical success factor.
The report also points out operators hold the most critical role -- without network operators loosening their revenue-sharing strangle-hold on content developers, these companies hold the greatest power to thwart Google’s ambitions. The report predicts that Google will succeed in acquiring a spectrum licence and to use this to 'convince' operators of the value of mobile innovation, either through partnerships or direct competition.
For mobile innovation to truly succeed, Google and its Android developers must get consumers out of the habit of thinking of the mobile Internet as a 'smaller' and 'less robust' PC Internet. Google must develop compelling incentives to convince the larger handset manufacturers to focus upon and innovate using Android. Without a broad range of handsets available and optimised for Android content/services, Google’s mobile ad-revenue dreams will remain dreams.
For the Open Handset Alliance to convince operators to loosen their grip on content and service revenues, alternative (and more profitable) revenue sources must be identified. While Government regulations will impede operator’s efforts to become banks, without a 'carrot' to compliment the 'stick' of Google’s plans to become a network operator, Google’s efforts to convince the world’s largest operators to adopt Android will be limited. Off-network revenues will be the key ingredient for these discussions.
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